Cliff's Weather Gems

Posted: Sunday, Apr 29, 2007 - 10:37:02 pm PDT
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Cliff Harris

The 'Wild West' scenario is alive and well in Brazil

Money talks folks! The huge sub-Amazonian Cargill soybean plant in north-central Brazil, which was closed in March for environmental reasons, has suddenly reopened and is shipping beans like there's no tomorrow.

We climatologists have warned for years now about the big "forest-to-farms land-grab" in the declining Amazon Basin. Each year, literally thousands of square miles of once pristine Brazilian rain forest are slashed in order to produce more soybeans, beef and timber for export to a demanding world.

Soybean production, for example, in the Amazon Basin has soared after heat-tolerant varieties were introduced a decade ago in 1997. Brazil may soon lead the entire world in annual soybean exports, surpassing even the U.S.

Brazil has already become the planet's largest exporter of beef since 2004. Timber demand for Brazilian hardwoods, in particular, has more than doubled. Most of the timber taken from the Amazon Basin has been done illegally. By the time one reads this article, another 1,000 acres of timber will be felled.

The market forces of globalization began invading the Amazon more than 40 years ago. During that time, approximately 20 percent of the region's rain forests have been cut down -- more than what had been previously felled in the entire 450-year span since the start of European colonization.

Literally thousands of indigenous Indian tribes have been displaced or killed in a "Wild West" U.S. frontier scenario of gun-toting 'land-grabbers.' The situation will only worsen as another 20 percent of the Amazon timber is cut between now and 2025.

What I'm afraid will happen climatewise, is that the Amazon Rain Forest's ecology will eventually 'fall apart.' Severe drought conditions, like the recent 2004-05 event, which lowered the Amazon River by as much as 40 feet in places, will raise the specter of disastrous wildfires that could ravage what's left of the forest.

Since the Amazon produces at least half of its own precipitation through the moisture it releases into the atmosphere by evaporation, convection and condensation, what trees remain after the fires and logging raids would quickly die out from the prolonged effects of parching drought. This is hardly a "pretty picture" to say the least. We may even see some unfavorable changes in our climate patterns over the rest of the planet as the result of the ecological 'mega-disaster' in the Amazon. Oceanic currents like the Europe-warming Gulf Stream could likewise be altered.

Drought conditions in the Far Western U.S., particularly the Desert Southwest, may worsen. Even North Idaho may suffer some moisture losses somewhere down the climatological roadway.

Once a 1,100-mile-long road that splits the Amazon into two pieces is fully paved, the land-grabbing assaults on the forests along its flanks will only intensify. This so-called "Soy Highway" will connect huge mega soybean farms as large as 300,000 acres each and the numerous timber mills to the coastal port facilities, much like what happened nearly 140 years ago in the U.S. when the Union Pacific Railroad spanned the American Continent for the first time in 1869. Everything changed, almost within the "blink of an eye." An economic BOOM began, but the ENVIRONMENT SUFFERED GREATLY as the result. It will happen again in Brazil, believe it!

North Idaho long-range weather outlook

April is ending on a mild and mostly dry note across the Inland Northwest. Afternoon high temperatures this past Friday reached the 70s in parts of North Idaho, eastern Washington and western Montana. A few light showers did break out along with cooler temperatures later in the weekend, mostly to the north near the Canadian border.

Speaking of precipitation, I still don't see any big storms arriving in our part of the country until sometime in early to mid May. Until then, we'll continue to see a weather pattern of 'sun and showers' of the 'hit and miss' variety.

The mid-May through mid-June period still appears to me to be potentially the wettest part of the Spring of 2007. There should be several thunderstorms crossing North Idaho at this time. Torrential downpours may produce scattered LOWLAND FLOODING, particularly in some of the same areas affected in the past few years on a regular basis due to the combination of warm spring rains and increased mountain snowpack runoff.

By mid to late June, however, again like last year, the spring rains will subside and temperatures will likely soar into the above normal upper 80s and lower 90s in the region. Summer may arrive a week or two ahead of schedule in North Idaho, that is IF I'm right in my long-range prognostications. (I've been WRONG before, just ask Marty.)

July and August will be HOT again like last year, but I don't see four afternoons in-a-row in July with triple-digit readings as occurred in blistering 2006, which was likewise the DRIEST SUMMER ON RECORD, since at least the inception of local weather data in 1895, some 112 years ago.

Total moisture this summer will probably DOUBLE last year's puny totals, mostly resulting from late afternoon and evening thundershowers. There will be few, if any, days with plans washed-out, so don't postpone attending regular summer events like the late August North Idaho Fair and Rodeo. I'll be there. That's a sure bet!